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2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

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peppercorn
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby peppercorn » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:38 pm

I woke up this morning to the news of a couple armed robberies at macs stores over night....I completely forgot about crime stats, people losing their homes in the early 80's did the same thing, there was a period where it seemed every news cast reported a armed robbery of sometype.....I think it was 82, maybe 83 and I had taken a job on the night shift of a mac's store....I was robbed at knife point..it was stupid back then, even stupider now when 50-60 bucks is what? a carton of smokes.

If interest rates swing up it will get ugly(er) fast, exponentaly so. 2016 is going to be real interesting...There are lots of people with 40 year mortgages on 450,000 homes that they just barely are making payments on.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby cernunnos5 » Mon Dec 21, 2015 4:02 am

I hate to kick people when they are down...well, that's not quite right. My third martial arts instructor said, "The only time I would try to kick someone in the head...is if they were on the ground".

But I recall saying in previous posts, An economic collapse does not mean you get to put on the combat gear and a bug out bag and shoot bad guys while looting the walmart for canned goods and penicillin.

It means you lose the wife, the house, the truck...not particularly in that order.

Its means suicides are the order of the day...because most people cant face the idea that homelessness is too good for them...or that somehow its a moral failure. Everything I have tried to write since getting here is to help people psychologically adapt to that new reality. Its the end result...but its not an judgement of your worth...and its not the end of the world.

Either way, the world noticed and it has been written about on many news sources. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/s ... -1.3353662

http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/albertas ... tch-crisis

etc.
Drinking and drug related deaths will be the next related spike...if we continue the usual historical collapse model. Stay tuned.


Here is my word of encouragement. Don't eat your gun. All that "Stuff" is "Fluff". Losing your Stuff is not the end. It just means you will change. The "Real" Survivors can survive homelessness. The sun will still rise. You can still find meaning. It will just be "Different". I've been there. I'm still here.

Did you think you were somehow inherently different than Syrian Refugees...Or East Van Junkies.
You wake up and take a breath. After a few years, you will have accumulated some cool stories of survival you can share around a campfire.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby cernunnos5 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:21 pm

Still not going away. Even CBC is saying oil will go into the 20s

But this....This even gives me the creeps and I don't creep easily. https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750 :shock:
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby cernunnos5 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:12 am

And this is why I try not to creep easily. Sorry folks. I got some bad info and mistakenly passed it on. It happens occasionally. This should clear it up-

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... antic.html :oops:
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby Dangphool » Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:59 am

Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby Antsy » Sat Mar 05, 2016 4:16 pm

Dangphool wrote:Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.



C'mon Dang, those 2200 QC jobs are important to Canada! Money well spent, I'd say. And didn't the Feds hand over $250 million to Notley to rebuild Alberta's economy?

On a more serious note - The 2008 correction was a small bump in the road for the energy sector in Alberta. This time around has been much tougher here, and for way more people. I would send a shout out to Knuckles if he were still around as he called it and I wasn't buying it. :oops: I don't really know why, but I'm still really busy. My staff is busy and we are not looking at lay offs. I am looking at work further afield though. Mrs. Antsy is awfully nervous though. I am having to remind her that the larder is full, the bills all paid, and that there are many who are in worse shape for not preparing for this sort of thing.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby peppercorn » Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:39 pm

Dangphool wrote:Still not improving of course with oil and natural gas where it is, and the eastern provinces putting up a stink about pipelines. Or as we like to call it, "access to tide-water".

CAODC is reporting 100,000 lost jobs in the sector nationally, yet Bombardier want another billion to protect a few thousand jobs in voter-rich Quebec. The logic is baffling.


Interesting note....Bombardier the company on endless federal support is a private family company...The shares traded on the exchange are not voting shares, the family retains the class of voting shares that keep company control in their hands. as a result few large serious investers are interested in investing in the company, much as you would expect, after all would you invest money in a company, and be happy not to have a say in its activities and howb your money is spent so as a result when it cant raise money, where does it look? to the government! If it wants federal money then the family should be forced to surrender control of the company.

Quebec will be happy to take a pipeline once they have negotiated a "cut"
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby peppercorn » Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:41 am

Headed up to Nisku today, pulled out last year about this time and I had a shock returning........Its not yet 1982, but the trajectory is bad. What a difference a year makes, and Ugly is the best way to put it.
Most every one has broken their leases, or renegotiated the rent, commercial bays leasing for half of last years rates (asking price), many negotiating rental rates down to 1/3 of what they were paying last year. bay after bay empty and still new shops being built/finished. the over suppy is stunning..From those with more info than I, the thought is the bottom has not been found, and may not be this year, the hope is next year things find the bottom and flat line there for a while before things climb north again. I don't think a new job could be found in Nisku right now.
I didn't see any philipenoes working the Mac Donalds (temporary foreign workers), just us pailer looking guys, and that's too bad, I so much liked getting my order right the first time.
will haul a load of scrap metal to the scrap yard Friday and talk with the guys there.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby Dangphool » Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:08 am

Ya, I was in Nisku for a meeting last Thursday, and even though it was leading into the Easter long weekend... it was dead quiet.

We are not seeing a recovery until 2017 either and we have ears in most of the 6 big associations: CAPP, CAODC, PSAC, etc.

no one has a positive sentiment to share.
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Re: 2008...Again...Um...Alert...I guess?...

Postby peppercorn » Mon Jul 04, 2016 6:20 am

Well I should update this from my last years posts.....My observation, and from those I speak with the concensus is the worst is over ( for business).They tightened there belts starting 2 years back, a little at first, then a lot. The big layoffs are done, the big projects/expansions shelved, extra leased space has been let go, invertories and staffing levels rationalized.Idle equipment sold. Doesnt mean there happy but are ticking over and holding on. If you have a job now your likely to keep it.
For those who have been let go....well this is the year the bulk will have there unemployment ins run out. some lucky ones maybe the insurance will run into next year, but run out it will. They to will have to rationalize costs. I have seen more shared housing, people renting out a room in there house, to help make up the difference in lost overtime pay that once helped pay the mortgage. 2 or 3 People renting a apartment together to cut costs....People are a little slower to respond than business, but are getting there.

This has been the 2nd worse slow down I have seen, I thought we were on a trajectory to match the 82,84/85 period but its not going to happen.
Jingle mail has been the exception not the rule, condo prices took a hit, home prices not so much, and sales are ticking along again, though time on market is a little longer. Homes are still being built on spec, infact from the west end of Edmonton to the east side whole subdivisions are being built on spec, and selling. Alberta through it all is still gaining in population, and attracting the skilled
I did some rural traveling and from what I see, I predict maybe a bumper crop of everything, agriculture is on target for maybe a record year. I am sure there is going to be some new model pickups sold when the crops come in.
The only thing I see causing continuing damage now is this provincial government that can only think of more taxes and spending...We survived the low oil price, but can we survive this tax, spend and regulate government??
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