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C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Sat Aug 13, 2016 5:41 am

Place holder

C5..You have been supping at the Domesday Dinner havnt you? not that anything is wrong with that.....just that too many shots from the bottle of conformation bias is never a good thing.
I have seen your links before, we likely travel similar paths in the internets, but I reviewed them again. I am running against the coming winter right now so I cant engage in a comprehensive point by point, maybe when the snow flies. for now I can say I agree with the trajectory in most aspects regarding our non renewable, increasingly expensive to extract oil. I do understand EROI and how it plays out, but there are assumption made as fact, conclusions reached that are not argued to come to a diffinitave 10 years and its all over claim. I give you your own words

“Then, the Internet and the social media came and they democratized lying. Now everyone could lie to everyone else simply by sharing a message. Truth didn't come anymore from the trust in the people who were transmitting it, but from the number of "likes" and shares a message received. Truth can't possibly be the same as virality, but it appears to have become exactly that in the general perception: if something is shared by a lot of people, then it has to be true.

So, today, we are lied continuously, consistently, and gleefully by about everyone and just about everything. Half truths, pure inventions, distortions of reality, word games, false flags, skewed statistics, and more are the communications we face every day. The tsunami of lies that's crashing upon us is nearly unimaginable and it has consequences, dire consequences. It is making us unable to trust anything and anyone.

You were holding back, you should have mentioned that those telling us what we want to hear are the most dangerous, and when we are having our conformational bias stroked is when we must be most on guard and questioning of the conclusions fed to us.

I have been around for a while...I first heard that claim in the 70's, cant remember the year for sure but 73, 74? maybe 75, by of all things the teachers in school, we were being told that all the oil would be used up by the turn of the century, one teacher I remember saying we wouldn't make it to 1990, by then we would all be driving electric cars. So since then I eye all claims with a known fixed date with suspicion, because the data used to extrapolate out there is often more subjective than objective. I am not saying you are wrong, I hold open the possibility your right, I have a probability assigned to that....My propability is likely different than yours...when we are sucking on a doomsickle, its all good for a while but if we hold it in our mouth too long we get a sort of brain freeze, that brain freeze affects our sense of time and proportion... I got to get to bed right now
I counter with https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNSHZG9blQQ

And I am wearing the glasses, no need to smack me around, I see a longer trajectory though

this may also be a interesting vid of why we believe what we believe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv4KtAnjqzU

Im never impressed with experts, did you know Tesla said plane travel was just a silly novelty that would go know where, Derigibles he thought was the future.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:40 pm

So to begin...starting from your first link... from a objective sceptical perspective as all great claims should be looked at....as recommended in my links.....The source...Ugo Bardi's blog...ok by his own blog statement he is trying to promote action (he has a agenda,) but worse way worse and this should be setting off alarm bells https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwOJlOI1nU
he goes a little off into space here with the statement and I quote "(and don't forget that the ancient prophetess turned out to be always right)". Implying that he is a prophet to be believed?
You wouldn't see a statement like that from say the American Medical Journal, or from "The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists" would you?
So right off the bat my spiddy senses are tingling, ...but I am still up for a good story if the evidence leads there.
Then he makes his claim...."What most people miss is that the rapid end of the Oil Age began in 2012 and will be over within some 10 years."
I do like a guy who spits it right out,lets hold him to his claim.
The clock started ticking in 2012....its now the last half of 2016 4years have gone by, so really he is saying there is only 6 years left. If you thought 10 years was a incredible statement how much more incredible is a 6 year claim? Has he sold his car yet? lets say the oil age began 1870, its 2016 so its been a 146 year run, that ends full stop...in 6 years....that's quite a bet against history don't you think? what value of probability would you assign that? I view history like the house and don't like betting against it.
I have to get busy so I will leave you Rickovers speech from 1957 as a alternative to read...http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006- ... vered-1957 Predicting the end of the oil age has been going on for a long time...Ugo's come late to the party...but is making a grand entrance
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:26 am

Now least you think I am busting your balls keep in mind you are preaching to the choir, I am in the church (figuratively speaking) with you, to the left maybe one isle back, gazing out the window, but I am there.
I have just fallen for every claim, of every type in the past, know one has fallen for more bs than ( my younger) me. No one, remember the hills, from the 70's, abducted by aliens...yea...I bought that and every book they wrote, cause nobody would make that shit up right?
Remember Uri geller who could bend metal with the power of his mind...yea I bought that...Remember " Pyramid Power" it could not only sharpen razor blades put under it, but reverse aging ,put lead in your pencil, and let you sleep for 4 hours but feel like it was 8...quess who made one out of plywood and put it over their bed....yea that's right.... me. Trickle down theory, and domino theory..yea, bought both, have the Tshirt.
Strangely enough, while I bought the above, I can still remember being younger in Sunday school, and I clearly remember thinking (during our colouring book assignment of the ark) no God would drowned all the puppies....some things were just too ridiculous, but I degress.
I am saying all great claims require great proof. I wont insult you by requiring less...or not examining whats given.
Last edited by peppercorn on Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:23 am

I have read and reread, from the links given,and found others http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/1 ... op-running , A great argument is made for the end of the oil age, 6 years from now, a perfect storm of events you could say. Not being a writer, or even enjoying to do so, I am at a great disadvantage in challenging everything point by point, especially when I agree with the direction of much that is said, so I am not going to..I have held such a time and condition out much further....2040 to 2055 time frame. in other words past my lifespan....likely yours to. I am not saying there wont be cycles driving the price nose bleed high, and crashing again, but that's normal,
maybe the time frame between cycles will be compressed, ok, we will just adjust..we have no choice. The argument made is I believe more to "drive the herd" To illicit action and provoke a response. I oppose being driven, its just in my nature even if its the direction I am going.
I am in the camp that believes in leading by action, not driving by fear. Also to make the argument requires discounting or marginalizing our potential individual and collective responses to it, while I am less optimistic about our collective responses, individually I have a very good idea of how much less energy we can use and still live comfortable....I say that as someone who measures and test everything, I am not speculating when I say if a effort is made any house hold can get by on 2 thirds less energy than is typically used today. Anyone who has been to Europe knows they have roughly half the energy foot print, this includes oil,of a north American and they are not exactly living in poverty.....or lacking industrial development, and that's after putting all their stuff in piles and blowing it up every couple decades (ok not lately). We have spent a awful long time sitting at the "all you can eat energy buffet"maybe its time we go on a diet, and if its a forced one, oh well...will it be rough for some...yes...oh well...
Its not that I am in full opposition to your assertion, I have assigned values, my estimate is 15%to 20% probability...I am also well set should I be wrong ;) . C5, 6 years is not long, and You and I will soon know how this plays out... I know I will still be driving cause I can make my own ethanol :D I will grow sugar beets if I have to...
I would be interested in the thoughts of others on this topic....I have yapped enough, and what has been the fate of your pig? is he bacon yet? Will he be?
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:10 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZt1UoL392A

This guy has a bunch of vids on the same theme, he is referencing a 5 to 10 year time frame..at first...then jumps to 20, then to 30....So the idea is consistent but the time frame is very subjective.

a better more recent presentation covering the same stuff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co61gPnCkRw
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:43 am

Here is a guy promoting his book "the crash of 2016" he is talking about a economic crash. He must have wrote it a few years back.....I have a feeling he isn't selling many copies now.... Such are the dangers of putting a date to anything. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=039Zh9KBCqY
I think it was you who once posted a video of religious end of the world predictions.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby cernunnos5 » Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:29 am

Noooooope. Nahn.Hah. Not taking the bate. Go back and read it again... until you fully get EROEI.

Peppercorn is correct in pointing out (especially to the new and easily manipulated preppers) the importance of understanding Confirmation Bias (The tendency to only see info that proves your belief while ignoring the overwhelming other proof that says you should go back onto the meds you are supposed to be on). I passed it by another smart friend....and he did the same thing as pepper corn. Attack the source instead of the info.. In both cases, they got the source wrong. Something, something about a prophet and respect in there home town. Both peppercorn and my unnamed friend made the same mistake investigating the wrong people. Different people, by the way. Go back and re read.

Im reminded of Dmitry Orlovs sagely advice, "Plus or minus half a decade".

What no one else has mentioned is how the government and banks will respond. Past experience is that they will tax and print. Oil is already subsidised. How far will they subsidise it when its too Oily to Fail....and how long does that last. It lasts till the trucks stop running. http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/1 ... op-running

Since you are all polite enough to still be reading my posts, here is a treat for reading. Im not a fan of the Backwoods Batmen (we have a thousand years of recyclable garbage to go through first. I already have a lifetime supply of boots, clothes and fire starters)....but this guy is Special. I have pointed him out before fore making clay shingles in the bush. He is why..."We'll Get Though This". https://aeon.co/videos/the-amazing-man- ... e-and-clay
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby wabsey11 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:20 pm

When I was a little younger and more idealistic I had idea of becoming a hemp farmer. I found an old farm that was run down that is 400 acres. I have this crazy idea of utilizing hemp in every way. Specifically in building materials, clothing materials, food, and fuel. Many years ago we had a company down in Annapolis county that made clothing out of hemp. 25 year warranty on jeans, 10 year warranty on work gloves and such, and there is no reason why we can't have it again. As for peak oil I have the directions on how to make hemp into fuel. It's a simple process for the most part and renewable. I've read that the reason for a prohibition of alcohol in the states was because of Henry Ford using hemp fuel as a source for fuel for his cars. Just a thought about peak oil, there's always another option. Take care.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the

Postby peppercorn » Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:43 am

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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby peppercorn » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:26 am

C5, ... bad news for the author of that prediction, Out of the blue comes this news that knocks the narrative off the rails....20 billion barrels found right in Texas, true its shale oil, but unlike North Dakota shale oil, this formation is contiguous..way easier/cheaper to extract than the separate pools in North Dakoda.... They say economical to extract starting at 60 per barrel. http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midlan ... index.html
and found with over 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas! In Texas of all places, That's like finding oil in Nisku.
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