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C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

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cernunnos5
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby cernunnos5 » Thu Dec 01, 2016 2:39 pm

peppercorn wrote:C5, ... bad news for the author of that prediction, Out of the blue comes this news that knocks the narrative off the rails....20 billion barrels found right in Texas, true its shale oil, but unlike North Dakota shale oil, this formation is contiguous..way easier/cheaper to extract than the separate pools in North Dakoda.... They say economical to extract starting at 60 per barrel. http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midlan ... index.html
and found with over 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas! In Texas of all places, That's like finding oil in Nisku.



Are you trying to punk me? Was this just to draw me out? Well I was thinking of chatting about it anyhow. I take it you are talking about the Wolf Camp play. Can you say Ponzi scheme? Confidence game? As they say, You cant con an honest man. The wolf camp play was already known. Nothing was just DISCOVERED here. Someone is looking for desperate gullible investors.

Since we started this post quoting Cassandras Legacy, here is some appropriate reading- Peak Oil in a Fact-Free World: the New "Oil Bonanza" in West Texas - http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2016 ... w-oil.html
Since we have CL up, This one has been getting around- Tiffany's fallacy: the mineral pie is shrinking, and most of what's left is in the sky - http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2016 ... ie-is.html

This was put out by The Hills Group, themselves, themselves, in response- "Yes, the magic words; “technically recoverable”. "- https://srsroccoreport.com/the-hills-gr ... l-deposit/
And for those still not understanding the concept of EROEI, THG dumbs it down- https://srsroccoreport.com/the-hills-gr ... depletion/

The EROEI narrative is now out of the bag and lots of people are now on this. This person explains it way better.
E is for EROEI - http://22billionenergyslaves.blogspot.c ... eroei.html
"Note, however, that EROEI has nothing to do with money. Getting EROEI mixed up with EROI (Energy Return on Investment) is a common mistake. One deals with the immutable laws of physics and the other deals with the infinitely manipulable world of finance - and only one of these sets of conditions is negotiable"

In the couple months since posting this, the narrative of EROEI has made a lot more of modern history make sense than any other narrative. There is absolutely NOTHING that Berni Trump can do to Make America Socially Great Again. That tank is empty.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby edibleforestguy » Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:12 am

Prepping is insurance. I hope I never need it. Making it from Ontario to my bugout in Nova Scotia would be an amazingly difficult proposition. And when there, it is very hard to grow food. All that said, there will be trouble. How much trouble and when, God only knows. Lets hope, not much. As I say to my friends who wish for a higher price of gold, be careful what you wish for. When gold is $5000 an ounce, all kinds of things are wrong in society and the size of your portfolio will be the least of your concerns.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby peppercorn » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:11 am

C5 it is with reluctance I post this but I am like a mad dog regarding accuracy. I do have patients though, maybe my only virtue,I only had to wait, its 8 month now from your post regarding the imminent demise of the oil industry.... Those authors need something else to catch the head lines now, so they are now back pedalling. Back pedalling sells too!! Those wonderful entropy, and EROEI claims that served there purpose to get clicks and eye balls to a page and aparrently were charging 28 dollars a copy to see the raw data :roll: are now being challenged, and even Ugo Bardi who was happy to promote such stories is now warning against falling for such claims (Very disingenuously imo) I quote now from his own blog.

"Catastrophism is popular. I can see that with the "Cassandra's Legacy" blog. Every time I publish something that says that we are all going to die soon, it gets many more hits than when I publish posts arguing that we can do something to avoid the incoming disaster. The latest confirmation of this trend came from three posts by Louis Arnoux that I published last summer (link to the first one). All three are in the list of the ten most successful posts ever published here.

Arnoux argues that the problems we have today are caused by the diminishing energy yield (or net energy, or EROI) of fossil fuels. This is a correct observation, but Arnoux bases his case on a report released by a rather obscure organization called "The Hill's Group." They use calculations based on the evaluation of the entropy of the extraction process in order to predict a dire future for the world's oil production. And they sell their report for $28 (shipping included).

Neither Arnoux nor the "Hill's Group" are the first to argue that diminishing EROEI is at the basis of most of our troubles. But the Hill's report gained a certain popularity and it has been favorably commented on many blogs and websites. It is t is understandable: the report has an aura of scientific correctness that comes from its use of basic thermodynamic principles and of the concept of entropy, correctly understood as the force behind the depletion problem. There is just a small problem: the report is badly flawed."

He even has the gaul to boast that it was one of his best 10 posts (lots of add revenue.... the bastard)

Here is the article...http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2017 ... r-but.html

and another..http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2017 ... etion.html

C5.. I don't know jack about EROI or entropy but when people come out with big claims I remind myself that having a good story is not the same as being right. its just a tale, put out by a Author who needs to make money........... It just didn't pass my smell test.....Remember what I have warned about those authors!! anything for a buck just like Like a politician or clergy, and you can bet your ass Ugo got a cut of that 28 dollars for every report he helped sell. Affiliate marketing I believe its called, and the internet is choking itself to death on the stuff.Recognizing BS is the best defence you can have in life.....I have just been somewhat inoculated against many forms of manipulation/fraud thanks to watching 70, and 80s Christian televangelists. Seeing the pro's in action was like a university level course in Psychology, I mean I didn't know it at the time of course, but lessons were being learnt. We are assaulted daily by a cacophony of shameless carnival barkers, but none are more dangerous than those that are telling us what we are already inclined to believe.

The good news from this is that you don't have to rush back to Canada , maybe take another year down there and enjoy yourself.....
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby Antsy » Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:38 pm

Peppercorn,

I agree with your assessment regarding the oil and gas industry. With respect to thermodynamics in general and the concept of entropy in particular, the 2nd law refers to a "closed system". The reason that the concept of entropy does not apply to our situation here is simple; the system is not closed. We continue to innovate and add "energy" to the system.

A.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby peppercorn » Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:57 am

"We continue to innovate and add "energy" to the system."

We do, humans are at their best when their backs are against the wall. I am always surprised and impressed by how we can innovate. We did not get to the top of this food chain by accident, of course that does not mean we will stay there!
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby scrounger » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:36 pm

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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby Antsy » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:45 pm

scrounger wrote:Every dealer needs a junkie

http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... ederated=1


We all love talking about the demise of the oil age as if there were a viable clean technology just waiting in the wings ready to replace fossil fuels. Was there a headline somewhere about the discovery of Cold Fusion that I missed? Is the problem that too many people are burning fossil fuels? Or is the problem that there are too many people?
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby cernunnos5 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:36 pm

Hi, from south america.
Im finally online again as it has been a rather complicated process of getting internet, hotmail not letting me in, only having a tablet... and it has sort of been nice not having to talk with anyone.

Pepercorn must have been reading my mind with fuzzy pychic mind waves. I had been meaning to post those exact 2 posts from Cassandras Legacy.....once I got this whole internet thang working and a few braincells reactivated.

Not to toot my own horn......I cant say that with a staight face. Tooting my own horn is what got me this far :lol: . I had figured out there was a problem using the thermodynamic model after the second read. Its not an accurate model because it cant predict a time. I have seen cults use the second law of thermodynamics for all sorts of preposterous notions that have nothing to do with heat entropy....like saying evolution cant be true because of the second law of thermo dynamics, thus humans are de evolving....lets take this abit further...and that monkies and the lesser races are devolved from pure Aryan stock....or aliens depending on you cult...or all othe chistian denominations are the result of evil entropy from the cults true faith. Of course biology, social sciences or theology have nothing whatsoever to do this heat loss. It just sounds good because its a actual law and constant.
You can usually break the majic spell for a few moments by asking them if they know any other scientific Laws. When they realise the answer is no, you have a few seconds to put a wedge between them and the cult....befor the addict usually doubles down on the dose and considers you an agent of the devil testing their faith. Sigh.

Soooo, remember when I mentioned that investigating Ugo or Louis was just shooting the messanger. I was hoping someone would figure out that it was the mysterious Hills Group that needed further scrutiny.

That said, I still consider that artical as...real fucking important. Here is why. As Ugo points out, alot of people read this...and as Ugo also points out, though the thermodinamic model is wrong.....rapidly declining EROEI is real and responsible for all the declines we have been watching since the 70s and especially since 2005.

This article brought the EROEI narative into the mainsteam.

As Ugo also points out, the mistake people make is thinking that we will still pump until we hit a negative EROEI number, or as long as someone is willing to pay for it. Society breaks down long before that point because the society built on excess energy has nothing left to run on. That moment may happen at any moment. you cant predict that snap point.

I even speculate that we already hit it in 2005 and are simply running on momentum, excess waist built into the system...and government and financial fraud

I particularly apreciate the Red Queen narative- You have to run as fast as you can to stay in place. If you want to get anywhere you have to run faster. If you run too fast..you die.

OK. Thats enough brain power eroei for the moment. Let me catch my mental breath and get back to this in a part 2
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby cernunnos5 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:04 pm

Part 2
I have no training in the hard sciences. I still dont understand the law of gravity. I dont even understand these damned computers. I think I understand thermodynamics in its most basic form and am comfortable being wrong.

All heat comes from particles moving in space hitting each other. They bounce off each other at the exact same rate as they started, minus the friction at the point of striking each other. Thus, the universe is always bleeding heat.....and that is where babies come from. 8-) Well, at least the heat to not freeze your balls off. Its always a closed system unless god or some other unobserved phenominon <pardon me. I have no spell check on this computer and dont care> recharge partical movement....unless you are of the cult that believes energy can be sped up by mind waves by meditation, animal sacrifices, crystal araingements, financial market manipulation, postivity or prayer in schools. Magic or wishfull thinking

As Ugo points out, getting the propper EROEI numbers is pretty darn hard to get. What is important is watching the downward trend. An EROEI of 1 to100 or some lesser theoretical number is what we built our our society on, with roads, irigation, dambs, social institutions with social cohesion and milk delivered to the door. All need to be replaced regularly. That is when oil squited out of the ground by putting a straw in it. That is gone. The minimum to keep the pich forky populi from running amuck is a theoretical 1 to 30 EROEI. After that, roads get potholey, water has got that great taist of lead, dambs burst, I dont know how to spell, polatics go witchhunty and something resembling milk comes in tetripacks. Yuck. Imported conventional oil from stolen nations is running in the 1 to 10 EROEI range. Insane, Molock breeds with Mamon, unconventional oil that is runing our food systems is in the 1 to 5 range and you can cancell all those tractor pulls....plus you cant make a profit on it under 100$ a barell except with new investers and more debt. A ponsi sceme. And that is where we are now. Thinking positive aint moving those particals any faster. Nor will getting the right political system in place, placed in a cabolistic patern and chanting the magic words, In oil, god or technology we trust.

The only way out is though

The problem with the peak oil narative by itself is that most people will see the oil glut, low prices and say to themselves, what oil shortage.

We will never run out of oil. We have only run out of the High EROEI oil that sustains our lifestyle and eventually, life itself for alot of people.


A few people will notice I am visiting a place that anthropomorphic climate change is presently running amuck. A national emergency took place here over the last few weeks. Line ups for water. A Calgary flooding type of event but on a much larger scale. Close to 100 dead. The country next door was on fire like Fort Mack. Because I was able to predict it apon arriving here, I started storing water since my first week here. Thus I diddnt have to stand in any lines and carry water home. Same principal applies. By the way, I predict it will happen again while I am here and probably be worse the second round.

Speaking of wich, I was motivated to write and photogragh while here. I have some jucy morcells of apocaliptic adaptions to dispence... and I will have my own blog space comming soon. I will leave a note here once it is up. First, MrsC5 has to explain to me what these buttons do. :lol:
The new site will be called the Dark Green Mountain, Survival Research Center. I will start with a multi part series entitled Survival Advice from South America. I have also given myself a slight name upgrade from the obscure cerunnos5 to something more blunt. Catagory5. That way I can still keep the C5 monicker that you folks gave me.
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Re: C5s Promised Final Post- So Long And Thanks for all the Fish

Postby cernunnos5 » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:17 pm

And here we go. A computer virus set me back by a few weeks but thats all done now and I am figuring out word press. Im exited. You can now find me here. https://darkgreenmountainsurvivalresear ... press.com/

The first real post should be up within the week. I will also make a proper IPN anouncement today
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