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Escalating Aggressions

Discussions regarding wars around the globe
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RachelM
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Escalating Aggressions

Postby RachelM » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:35 pm

Hope everyone has been paying attention to the news lately. The U.S. has just launched a second strike in the Middle East (This time a 'MOAB' in Afghanistan), and North Korea is seemingly prepping for a new nuclear launch and upping their threats to the U.S. While technically the U.S. and N. Korea have been at war since the Korean war ended in truce and not peace treaty, I fear that tensions will soon reach a breaking point between U.S., the Koreans, Russians, or who knows who else.
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby Denob » Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:28 pm

I hadn't heard about the MOAB, but I've been listening to reports about NK for a while. Don't know why, but the NK situation is starting to worry me a bit.
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby helicopilot » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:04 am

The MOAB was simply the tool needed to get the job done. A bunch of Talibans hiding in a desolate area's cave system?? There's a tool for that. Afghanistan is nothing to worry about on itself. NK and the mess brewing in Syria (will in turn into another proxy war??) is a different story. Then again, NK has way too much to lose. China wouldn't back NK nuking the US or even SK, so their strike would essentially result in that country's annihilation. As crazy as Kim Jong Un is, I'm sure he understands that too.
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby peppercorn » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:11 pm

MOAB, brought to you by Trump Productions Inc....much better production values now that a game show host is in charge of boosting the ratings, this gives the proles something to talk about rather than wonder why they have lead in their water pipes, well in the poor areas.

Speaking to the subject of North Korea. I have no worries, by that I mean there may or may not be military action, Regardless, it will be regionally contained, largely and likely effecting the two Koreas, and US forces in the area. Though If I lived in Seoul Korea I would likely take a vacation to Europe for a while.....
The funny hair cut guy, despite sociopathic traits, is a rational actor (imho). If you have ever watched the old National Geographic series, there was one of some tribe, I don't remember where, but when one tribe was threatening the other, the warriors from each tribe would line up opposite each other. They would strut about looking their most warrior like that they could, yelling, then they would throw spears at each other, from a distance, I believe they traded the odd arrow as well. Injuries were common, but deaths mostly avoided, and when each side had shown the other and their own, how brave and tough they were, they went home. This is much the same, though there is a point where if funny hair cut guy thinks this is more than a display, that there is more to it than a skirmish, that he is the objective, then it does become rational for him to let loose with all he can field, after all if you think your going down any way, may as well make a bang on the way out and take as many of them with you, and your best chance to take the most with you is to direct your effort towards South Korea.
Either way it goes the consequences will be largely regional, so I am not losing sleep over this one.
In fact if it goes pear shaped and ties the Americans up for a while all the better....not better for the civilians, hell no, but since when have they ever mattered in what the USA will do. They don't even count the civilian dead from their global misadventures, so you cant expect them to have a serious thought about them.

I submit this quote from a article I was reading this AM. It hits the nail on the head.

“In 2003, Comedian Julian Morrow asked a dozen or so random people who the United States should bomb next. Most answered Iran, North Korea or Russia, but a few mentioned Cuba, Italy and even Canada. One individual even said we should bomb France, because ‘They were not our allies (during the Iraq War).’ None of the dozen or so shown in the interview said that we shouldn’t bomb anyone.” No loyal American worth his salt would ever question the basic goodness of dropping bombs on foreigners. Any foreigners, any time, no valid reason required. It’s what we do best.

I concur, and that was back in 2003, its not just what they do best, now at 2017 its all they got, its what they have to do, its the only tool in the tool box.
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby peppercorn » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:02 am

I will go out on a limb here, not the first time....
While the funny hair cut guy likes to boast a lot, as he needs to in his position, as a real threat to any nation he is not much of a threat, A great annoyance you bet, but his tastes in Liquor and fine food suggests he enjoys living, and I don't see him doing anything to change that. That is unless he does really think he is targeted then he will try to swing back but I don't see him being able to anything more than maybe blow off a nuke in place, maybe at the outside he might and its a big might, be able to fire a missile with a unminiaturized war head towards South Korea but I don't really think so. Testing them is a far cry from miniaturizing them to fit on a missile, then without well developed fusing he would be just as likely to drive one into the ground unfired as have one detonate. Then there are his missiles, failure rates way to high to be taken serious as a threat yet, though that will improve, but its not a credible threat at this point. Though for a American its a great pretext to start bombing

Now with that said, unfortunately for the North Korean citizens, it does look to me like the orange haired orangutan ( who I would have voted for) has deceided that North Korea is a perfect country to play nuclear patty cake with.They cant really hit the USA back, Fall out will be toward the Pacific, None of them have blond hair, blue eyes, speak English, Not likely Christians, so in other words perfectly killable, you would have to go to the Mideast to find people more killable than these, and there wont be embarrassing cell phone pictures of the crispy critter results, the Generals have been praying for the chance to use nukes, its the perfect tool for the job,and with Trump in charge they will get to use it. That's my prediction, I will be happy to be wrong.....either way enjoy this distraction, use your time wisely....attention will be swinging back to Russia, and they can hit back.


Ps: Did any of you ever count the craters on that Syrian airbase....no matter how many pictures I looked at, My count never went higher than 36 maybe 38, it sure wasn't 59. Just saying...
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby RachelM » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:56 pm

Yes I read on a CBC article that even though they shot 59 missiles that are supposed to be hyper accurate, only 30-something hit the base and the rest the surrounding village. Not sure if they just f'ed up or if the village was part of the target.

The big thing that worries me is the "d*ick swinging" as I like to call it. Trump and Kim both seem like the sort of egotistical men that don't know how to back down because they hate to lose (Kinda like my father!). They're both just showboating and flexing muscles, but it wouldn't be the first time that it leads to war or suffering for innocents. And I thought Russia was friendly with N. Korea? I haven't heard much on that front lately but it seems the U.S. just stepping on everyone's toes lately.
I will admit I got a laugh out of the news that N Korea's latest missile test was a flop. And when you say funny hair cut guy that could really apply to both! ;)
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby peppercorn » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:43 am

RachelM wrote:. And I thought Russia was friendly with N. Korea? I haven't heard much on that front lately


Sure, friendly but Russia's plate is full, little they can do but watch. Their attention is fully fixed on what is coming their way, I can only imagine the mad scramble that must be going on. I suspect they are trying to put back together every remaining decomissoned war head, and delivery system they can scrape together, Engineers must be working round the clock, on new system designs for missiles, upgrades for existing ones, and Counter measures, then I suspect the fab shops must be on 24hrs schedules at this point. Likely have been since last year. They know they will be fighting for their lives.
But while I don't have the benefit of knowing the cards they are holding, I do have a idea, if I put myself in their place, of how they will play them, How they play them will decide if they live or die. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that in a conventional "slug it out match" they are horribly out matched in men and material. even a early success would be rolled back and in short order. They have seen what happens to countries who just sit and wait while the Americans and their servile, pliant, Nato appendage build up their men and materials on the border. It doesn't go well for the targeted country. Supplies are already pouring in to Norway, Germany, Poland, Lithuania.....Must be up to 2000 plus M1 Abrams tanks and it just keeps coming.
I suspect they (Russia) will strike first and fast, none of this sitting in a fox hole waiting for a sat guided bomb to drop down. I suspect they go nuclear from the get go, as I would in their situation, but locally in theater at first, Then likely it will jump to "ludicrous speed"....
I think Nato/USA is planning for overwhelming force to be ready in east Europe, while using Syria, or Ukraine as russias testicles. They will apply pressure on one or the other to draw a response and give the pretext needed.

A good time to get yourself up to speed on the effects of Nuclear war, with special attention to the agricultural effects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCTKcd2Ko98

and a audio version of a more recent look at the same topic with attention paid to a limited exchange between India / Pakistan, and its effects on agriculture.
https://soundcloud.com/futureoflife/nuc ... brian-toon
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Re: Escalating Aggressions

Postby HopeImReady » Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:02 am

In North America, I would worry less about North Korea. (If I lived in South Korea I would would worry, in the event of stupid/accidental failed nukes that land in your backyard, if not from deliberate actions) I highly doubt China would stick its neck out to save the NK regime's butt, and Russia certainly would not. The both benefit from being regional power and maybe by NK purchasing arms & other military things, but they're not going to start a war over that. Plus NK would lose their food aid and likely do more damage to themselves than others.

I do worry about Russia's posturing in the former soviet states and neighbors, especially given Putin's ego. The other big unknown is whether Russia has something on orangey-hair that they're holding onto until just the right moment. I wouldn't put it past orangey to start a war to distract the domestic audience (or attempt to disprove) -if there were rumours swirling about alleged actions that could impeach him. Even if all his military advisors were advising him against confrontation with Russia. Dick-swinging indeed! There is a reason why we don't poke bears.
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