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Mt Tongariro eruption

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MrHappyNZ
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Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby MrHappyNZ » Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:29 pm

Seems mother nature is getting a bit cranky these days, is it just me or is there a lot more seismic and volcanic activity than has been usual for the last few decades. :?
Anyone on the board local to the area heard anything more about how bad/long it may get?
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MarlPrepper
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby MarlPrepper » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:55 am

lyrongue or orthaNZ did a video on youtube of it. good too have a video from a preppers perspective.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LpJK5n- ... ture=g-u-u if you want to take a look.
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby Gravlore » Fri Aug 10, 2012 3:36 pm

MrHappyNZ wrote:Seems mother nature is getting a bit cranky these days, is it just me or is there a lot more seismic and volcanic activity than has been usual for the last few decades. :?
Anyone on the board local to the area heard anything more about how bad/long it may get?


This was copied from a post on SHTFplan.com

Be informed says:
August 10, 2012 at 12:09 am @ you don’t need to know. Since the Ross Antarctica there has been 74 earthquakes of 4.5 or more ALL in different spots on the planet. To have 74 different spots in less than a week means that almost all the plates are being affected by what is coming. I have seen maybe 50-60 different spots in the same time period but I have not seen this many different areas. There are hundreds more areas that have had less than 4.5, but I use that 4.5 as a ball park figure as high enough to try to gauge where the energy is focusing towards. I find it interesting that the eastern flank of the Caribbean plate has not had any moderate activity during this time and neither has South Island New Zealand.

As I have said before watch New Zealand, and this week volcanic activity has started. To look at New Zealand it is being squeezed by the Australian plate, the Pacfic plate and the Antarctica to the south. Actually New Zealand should be more dangerous to live there than Japan because Japan only has to contend with the Pacfic plate, Asian plate and the much smaller Philippine plate. To look at the mass pressure going against the Australian plate as it looks like a catcher’s mitt, with tremendous compression going on along the Marquane Ridge which is south by south east of New Zealand.

I orginially made a prediction to see a 6.7-7.3 in various parts of the world by tomorrow night, and I could be wrong and I will fully admit to this because 5-10% of the time an earthquake does not occur within the time period of a week when you have this much activity south of 60 degrees south. What I see however is extremely disturbing.

Usually before an earthquake there will be smaller earthquakes that form a pattern to kind of aim where the bigger earthquake will come from. When you have 74 different spots it shows that much tension is building to something that could be bigger than the 7.3 range.

My opinion what is going on is that the plates are within an enhanced period of movement like the sun goes through higher sun spot activity. I have always believed that the plates are not as slow as geologists say they are. I think that there are very violent sudden collisons of land mass collisons and then lulls in the activity. Just the recent uptake could prove this as 9.0+ are really quite rare. In late 2004 you had that 9.1 in Indonesia, then a 8.7 a few months later, a 8.8 in Chile, the 9.0 in Japan, and the largest strike slip on record earthquake just a few months ago of either 8.7 or 8.6 then a 8.3 and 8.2 shortly after. This is less than a 8 year period. The activity will get more intense.

People will often refer to the 1960 9.5 Chile earthquake and then the 9.2 in Alaska in 1964 as a similar period of intense activity. The one key that doesn’t fit here is that 8.6 or 8.7 depending on the seismic station and the 8.3 or 8.2 afterwards. The largest recorded side to side earthquake was about a 8.1 or 8.2, again depending on the seismic site. This means that in very little time you had two earthquakes that BOTH broke the all time record for a horizontal earthquake. That 8.6 would be like a 9.7 in comparison to a mega thrust fault. Again why is this important?

That strike slip indicates that the Australian plate had so much stress and force behind that it moved with the energy of something much bigger and deep. The size of an earthquake is determined by how much energy is released and that has to do with the miles of fault breaking. Thrust faults have vertical and horizontal breakage. A strike slip only has mostly horizontal breakage and sometimes a tiny bit of vertical. This thing was a monster, and it shows that the plates are on the move and causing this much pressure along the Australian plate. The San Andreas I think is probably capable of a 8.4 tops unless the entire thing breaks.

Conclusion should be to look for more activity in Antarctica, especially volcanoes. Other than Mount Erebus there is no recent volcanic eruptions in the interior of Antarctica with the dozen and a half volcanoes there. You start to see volcanic activity there, other than Erebus and SHTF on the geo-physical level for this planet. New Zealand people forget as the 5th largest volcanic eruption ever in Mt. Taupo that erupted 26,500 years ago. New Zealand is under massive stress from the Austalian plate, more so than the other two plates. Look for any earthquake of 7+ or more on North Island New Zealand as this would be enough to tear an opening for Taupo to possibly erupt. Taupo is a super volcano capable of dropping the worldwide temperatures by 20 degrees and destoying most crops of the world.

How does prepare for what is coming play into earthquakes? Much because one earthquake can be what brings down everything. If the San Andreas or the New Madrid fault broke with the force of a 8+ it would likely cost the country anywhere from a trillion to 20 trillion dollars and that the country could not absorp. 5 million homes valued at $300,000 each in california destroyed would be 1.5 trillion alone. 3 minutes of intense shaking and the fires after this could easily destroy that many homes and then some. The business destruction would easily total much more.

The New Madrid is far worse off because of the harder rock under the 7 states that the New Madrid would hit. Remember this is not a billion dollar disaster like Hurricane Katrina that was 100 billion+, this would be trillions dollar disaster. Insurance claims would bankrupt companies in the life insurance part alone from the high death counts. It will be the duration of the shaking that brings everything down more so than the size. After a mega earthquake in a highly populated area, this is time to get everyone’s preparations finalized because it won’t be shortly thereafter that most store shelves will be empty and maybe at least regional martial law is imposed. The country will be in terrible shape after either one of these faults breaks with a 8+ shaker.
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby sixin » Wed Aug 22, 2012 8:47 pm

Interesting article.
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MrHappyNZ
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby MrHappyNZ » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:20 pm

Very interesting, thanks for that Gravlore.
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Gravlore
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby Gravlore » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:08 am

Another Earthquake update by BI. I follow this guys posts religiously.

Be informed says:
August 26, 2012 at 11:55 pm @ kynase. You probably already heard this but if you have gas get one of those quick shut off wrenches, fires and explosive gas will be an enormous problem. Keep a good pair of shoes nearby for everyone as glass will be everywhere. If you can afford it a portable toilet with plenty of chemicals to dissolve waste would be an excellent prep as sewers will not work after this. A water purifier would be very good to have. A reliable light source is very important, candles no one can have too many of. Protection, preferably firearms of different sizes, a shotgun at least as anyone breaking in will be very close engagement. With a shotgun get only buckshot and slugs are extremely powerful at close range and will stop almost anyone.

Why I became so alerted to this is the shear rarity of foreshocks. Big enough to feel foreshocks before a bigger earthquakes are rare, only 1 in about 20. To have two foreshocks growing in size is about 1 in 400. To have three foreshocks growing in size about 1 in 8000. Here is the sequence of events.

Earthquake swarm starts early in the morning with 2′s and low 3′s.
9:02 AM Pacific time there is a 3.8
11:16 AM is a 4.0
11:20 AM is a 4.6
11:31 AM is a 5.3
11:33 AM is a 5.3 and then is downgraded to a 4.9
12:58 PM is a 5.5
A bunch of aftershocks and other earthquakes in between.

I lived in southern california and earthquakes NEVER did this when I was out there. On a rare time one earthquake might be bigger and then die off. I can remember the Whitter earthquake of 6.1, later downgraded to a 5.9, there was only a 3. something before it struck. Other 5′s always died off and did not get bigger and bigger.

One of two events is going to happen. It is going to relock itself and even more stress will build. The sequence should continue with at least one more earthquake of at least 5.7 or bigger then a huge earthquake. The next earthquake will likely be a longer wait because stress must build up enough to unload something that is in the high 5 range or more. If you don’t see one over 5.5, then it has likely relocked and the San Andreas will either have to be pushed from the south or something like the Cascadia fault to the north will have to move out of the way.

Right now it is 50-50, a coin flip. Another one above 5.5 and I would say 75%, another two each one higher about a 90% chance of it breaking. Three or more with each one higher than the next, it would be like betting on a 2-5 heavy favorite horse to win, almost a sure thing it will break soon.

This does not surprise me as I have seen what happens when you start having earthquakes close to true magnetic south or north, big earthquakes follow. Had a 5.4 at 65 degrees south this morning near the Antarctica. Too many times big earthquakes follow, about 85-90% of the time. The 7.7 deep focus earthquake last week shows that the Pacific Plate is really on the move.

Out in southern california they will likely tell you that this is the Imperial fault that broke in 1940 and 1979, but it is not. These earthquakes are too far to the north and east of the Imperial fault. It is almost certain an extensive of the San Andreas where they will tell you it stops at the southern shore of the Salton Sea, which it does not. The Imperial fault is on that map and runs into Mexico and just east of Mexicali. The earthquake swarm is not on that fault. It is about 10 miles away. It is the San Andreas. You start to get swarms north and/or south of here, it is probably ready to fail soon. Things to look for as harbingers.
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Gravlore
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby Gravlore » Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:30 am

From the same author. Take it for what its worth.

Be informed says:
August 27, 2012 at 12:42 am ALERT, ALERT. Just had a 7.4 down in El Salvador. This will be enough to push either the San Andreas and or the New Madrid fault. It has enough force, this is for sure, it is not certain but it is enough. The planet it coming apart. SHTF is happening right now.
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby Denob » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:40 pm

Gravelore,
What is your opinion on the new madrid fault affecting eastern Canada?
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ICRCC
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby ICRCC » Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:45 pm

Thank you for keeping us updated Gravlore.
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Gravlore
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Re: Mt Tongariro eruption

Postby Gravlore » Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:57 pm

I am not an expert on the topic, but am learning a little as I go. I would suggest asking that question to 'Be Informed' on "shtfplan.com". He does answer questions on the subject. He seems to be the fountain of knowledge you seek. I Re-post his comments here. It is a fascinating subject when you get past the destruction aspect of a earthquake.

Your opinion and knowledge on that fault is probably higher than my own.
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