Is It Over Yet?

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Denob
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Is It Over Yet?

Post by Denob »

OK, we've all been doing this for at least 100 days now.
The number of new cases per day continues to drop.
Quarantine measures are being relaxed.
Very little sign in the rest of the world of a second wave.
Is it over yet?
Thoughts?


SetiCruncher
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by SetiCruncher »

I think it's long over, its just being hyped by the media to keep the fear factor/ratings up.

All the models that are showing high possibilities of even worse second and third waves are based on the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, but seem to fail to recognize that our medical technology and medical/infection knowledge has greatly increased since then.

Media has reported a second wave happening in China already, but as long as Canada keeps its borders closed no big deal.

I've been working on the front lines through this whole thing with very little time off and I haven't worn any PPE at work, although we have lots of it, and I haven't had any issues as of yet.

I'm still maintaining a distance from close friends and family just in case I am exposed, just as a precaution, but as far as I'm concerned this has all just been hype.

What has me curious is why all the hype and fear over a virus with a 2% kill rate? Has something big been happening behind the scenes that they want to keep us distracted from? or is this all just a test run for something bigger coming sometime down the road? I guess time will tell.
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peppercorn
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by peppercorn »

I have been in big grocery stores in Edmonton and smaller towns over this last week, and if stock levels are a indication, yes its over (using that as a gauge). I am now seeing the flour isle filling with a wider range of product, some of it in new packaging, and Powdered milk has been staying in stock and is no longer hit and miss. What I found interesting is at the last two stores I was at, a Wally Mart and a Superstore, no limits on purchases including toilet paper. So by that measure its over, of course second order effects can be found such as much higher meat prices, those type of effects will take some time to adjust back down to lower levels.

I even found some sale prices on canned meats, I normally am not a fan of spam, and corned beef but in the interest of diversifying my "just in case" storage I grabbed a flat (case) of each. 1.80 a tin for spam, and 2.47 for corned beef (usually 3.50-4.00 dollars a can). I had heard that spam can store forever though the best before date is two years from now, the corned beef is stamped as good till 2025.

I think for a lot of people, seeing something like this happen is really going to push them towards being better prepared. I know I was sitting very comfortable food wise before this but I am now comfortable X 2, and will be X 3 by the end of this year.
Last edited by peppercorn on Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Clarence
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by Clarence »

I am going to sound like a politician or perhaps one of our can’t find their backside with two hands in broad daylight health experts here so please excuse me in advance.

It’s a yes and no situation.
Yes many items are finding their way to shelves, yet, selection or brands are not all there. Garden supplies from people doing victory gardens is scarce...

And no. While suff on the shelves is one thing, let’s look at unemployment in the US. While down from weekly numbers of 2.2, 2.5 , 2.0.Million applying for unemployment EACH weeks since March. They were still 1.5 million NEW filings last week!

That’s a lot of new people filing for unemployment and indicative of serious pain and something that will have an impact on all of us in many ways.

Now are the number of cases going down in some cities, absolutely, but they are Also rising in other states. I tend not to focus to much on canada because what happens in the US, has and will have an impact on us, so I watch the activity there as a tool to Try and predict Activity here. Also, China appears to have a new outbreak and that’s what now, “six to eight months since the initial one in November of 2019! So while our first wave is slowing down , is China’s new breakout round two and can we expect ours as predicted, this fall?? And remember, they like us have been trying hard to put the rabbit back in the box and I am guessing they are using far more draconian measures then us, yet it appears to be failing!

While we do have more advanced medical treatments, we are as I have said before, living in far more congested locations and FAR more dependent on store bought supplies. The deaths and hospitalizations were for a pandemic, not all that disastrous but look at the havoc it caused. This is our Achilles heal. A terrorist could poison a few food items in each major city and cause enormous damage, it won’t be the fifty people poisoned that will cause chaos but the tens of millions who are now afraid of eating what’s on the shelf! A container or two testing positive for radiation in a container on the west coast would shut down ALL inbound and current container traffic! So it’s not Always the numbers, but the subsequent impact that must be understood. PS, none of what I mentioned is classified but all well documented and openly Sourced /accessed scenarios.

We have seen all the lies, the feel good baloney, the grossly incompetent statements Or inaction by politicians and all manner of alleged health experts on masks, medicines..... so when ones life is on the line, credibility is key and sadly, the state has zero credibility. So I think it’s safe to pretty well blow off anything they say as fact. Still important to listen to what they say but I listen to what they don’t say or how the word their feel good press releases and other trope to understand what is really going on.

Look around at how people are reacting and one sees wild fear or the risks being blown off By young adults, you are seeing businesses not knowing how to open up, be it restaurents or office towers. We have not even begun to see or understand the mental and financial damage done to people as nothing is really being reported on. We are seeing shifts in where people may wish to live and work. The distribution chain has been shown to be frail, financial markets which are at the best of times an organized con game are now even beyond the old level of incoherent activity or hype.

So getting back to “is it over yet? “, in my opinion not by a long shot. “It” is not just the virus but more importantly the impact it has on us and our life.

Whenever I worked on an emergency preparedness, business continuity plans or hardening of systems against a terrorist attack or other concerns, I would obviously give attention to whatever the weapon or threat was, but in order to actually protect my clients, I would pay more attention to the longer term effect of a car bomb, poisoning of an air intact to a building, cutting of power to substations.... one is immediate and while on the surface dramatic imagery of people bloody and maimed on TV, it often has very few actual casualties, but the real impact is felt on the business around the building damaged a block away, Interruption of government Or utility services the psyche of the people, higher food cost, political And financial disruptions, people leaving the area for safer locations etc.

So no, I do not think“ it’s” over yet, not by a long shot.

I believe we will see marketing try and pump up a sense of “we are over this”, people are tired and want to get back to some place of normalcy etc. it’s summertime and people will naturally be drawn to BBQ’s beaches and family get togethers and yes it is great and much needed and I will and am gladly partaking in what I view as a temporary reprieve.

Regrettably, I do not see this sense of being over “it”, lasting to long, so I will continue to push hard on looking at where I am, the likely increased chance of a financial crisis and all the grief that can bring and manifest into, and the second and third waves which according to history have greater numbers being hospitalized and what I would like to and can do to improve my position for this fall and coming years. As we have seen, it’s not the numbers but the damage done to the nations Government and commercial infrastructure and people’s morale, character and stability

As far as I can see, “It’s” not over yet
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farmgal
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by farmgal »

Yes, the huge push of fear.. the lock down, the shock, the fears, the panic buying.. is over.. and things are in many ways settling down and what is with that 2 percent rate.. come on honest.. our daily test rates are crazy low as is our full on local and country wide death rates..

Given what we were "told" it should be MUCH higher! things are not yet adding up and perhaps they never will..

However it depends on what you are calling "it" It as in that first lock down..ya, we are moving on with some bumps and bruising but we are digging in and digging out.

However if you mean is this over.. I am sorry but my answer Hell NO! We got hit with the front of the storm and this is the lull that blessed moment of peace.. before all the other parts of the storm is coming round and will start hitting us. If I think of C-19 as the rain, the economy is the wind and she is still blowing, the political choices being make is lightening, the climate change is the hail waiting to come and hit us in sudden ways.

All those weak spots that came up.. they are not over.. we need another 5,000 workers for the next levels of crop harvest and Mexico just shut down our programs over a 24 and 30 year old dying of c-19.. the local farmers have crops that are inches high begging for rain.. the local berry producers are not allowing public in to pick because the crop is so lean that they can not afford to have children pick.. the whole provinces hatchery's have sold out till next year. and I could list another 50 points across local, Ontario, Canada and then you start looking at the world..

will there be a second wave? yes, I think so.. will it matter.. I am not sure.. if it has the death rates we say in the first.. I am not sure we can honestly say that they will do another lock down.. but will it continue to have far reaching effects for the next months, year and or years.. you bet your bottom dollar it does!
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Clarence
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by Clarence »

farmgal wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:14 pm Yes, the huge push of fear.. the lock down, the shock, the fears, the panic buying.. is over.. and things are in many ways settling down and what is with that 2 percent rate.. come on honest.. our daily test rates are crazy low as is our full on local and country wide death rates..

Given what we were "told" it should be MUCH higher! things are not yet adding up and perhaps they never will..

However it depends on what you are calling "it" It as in that first lock down..ya, we are moving on with some bumps and bruising but we are digging in and digging out.

However if you mean is this over.. I am sorry but my answer Hell NO! We got hit with the front of the storm and this is the lull that blessed moment of peace.. before all the other parts of the storm is coming round and will start hitting us. If I think of C-19 as the rain, the economy is the wind and she is still blowing, the political choices being make is lightening, the climate change is the hail waiting to come and hit us in sudden ways.

All those weak spots that came up.. they are not over.. we need another 5,000 workers for the next levels of crop harvest and Mexico just shut down our programs over a 24 and 30 year old dying of c-19.. the local farmers have crops that are inches high begging for rain.. the local berry producers are not allowing public in to pick because the crop is so lean that they can not afford to have children pick.. the whole provinces hatchery's have sold out till next year. and I could list another 50 points across local, Ontario, Canada and then you start looking at the world..

will there be a second wave? yes, I think so.. will it matter.. I am not sure.. if it has the death rates we say in the first.. I am not sure we can honestly say that they will do another lock down.. but will it continue to have far reaching effects for the next months, year and or years.. you bet your bottom dollar it does!
Oh to be clear, this/ covid / it, is far from over ( my ever so humble opinion).
If we do another lockdown, it will be beyond brutal to the average person. We were in debt before, mat be at 250 billion deficit today, shut it down again in September or October and over the winter flu season and I shudder at what things will look like. Even if covid completely disappeared tomorrow, the financial hit is enormous.

Stop and think about how for decades and before covid we couldn’t pay down 10 billion in deficit and that was alleged under good times! You think we can handle 250 billion. Hahahaha. Nope we are in a new world right now. Have a worse round two and three and we are caput under current financial system. If workers think their pensions are secure, dream on!

Sad to see the farmers struggling with labour, a presume you are referring to strawberry crop?
Clarence
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by Clarence »

Well quebec is opening up just about full bore. Restaurant, pools, casinos....
should be interesting too see the number of cases in 3-4 weeks from now.

They will have summer vacations and cottage life to maybe help a bit but the downside could be the city folks spreading to outlying areas?
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Denob
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by Denob »

I suspect the second wave here in Quebec to be more of a ripple.
People are taking things seriously and wearing masks and using hand sanitizer like crazy.
Remember, most of our cases were in long term care homes...a clusterf*** to be sure, but the general public was largely unaffected.
That being said, we have spent lots of time and money getting ready for it.
Just in case...
Clarence
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by Clarence »

It is certainly true that most cases were in senior homes and the public is perhaps taking hygiene more seriously.

But what is also likely happening is, there are more “ known” cases of it out there then back in February. So that’s one big concern, second one is we do not know how many people carry it and do not know they have it and walk into the bars..... now opening up, sharing plates of food at the cottages etc.

The economy is taking a serious hit and I am not so sure the Various levels government will be quick to shut it down as fast as they did in March. While ridiculously slow, I think it will still be faster then round two. Closing businesses again will be guaranteed to be the nail in the coffin for retail, restaurants, people are defaulting on mortgages, not paying rents....then you have Christmas retail sales and I believe they count on 70% of sales occurring then there’s hotels, airlines... people keep talking about Spanish flu but the big difference in the economy is most people live and work in the cities versus rural. Huge difference in economic impact.

If it does a slow burn all summer and into September, what will happen with typical flu season or kids with usual spike of colds when they all go back to school? Quebec tried opening the schools on an extremely small scale and it failed miserably. Perhaps a good test For the fall but still a large failure.

Pure speculation on scenarios of course but I certainly have zero intention of slacking off. Certainly hope this fizzles out but I would bet 80-90% it’s coming back this fall. We shall see.
thecrownsown
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Re: Is It Over Yet?

Post by thecrownsown »

The province of Ontario is watching closely. As rates drop, so do the restrictions. The general consensus is that "if" a second wave comes it will be at least partially tied to the return to school in September.

I suppose its a monitor, stay vigilant and wait and see what happens.

My personal opinion....keep the border closed to mitigate the spread that is rampant in the states.
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