Threat Risk Assesments (TRA's)

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Threat Risk Assesments (TRA's)

Post by Clarence » Fri May 03, 2019 6:25 pm

something i believe can help people understand their vulnerabilities and according to resources, prioritize their efforts or options.
Anyone wish to ask question in this forum or via PM, go for it.
the below is a quick example.

I have tried a number of times to get the formatting in an easier to read fashion but so far no luck. I will try and fix later

Threat Risk Assessment (TRA)

It’s a process of determining what the threats are(death from loss of heat, water, shelter...), the risks/ likelihood (from flood, terrorism...) of it happening and what measures are appropriate (honest assessment process) to address both concerns .

“Quick description of process below”

Unless we have unlimited resources and time (impossible) we must be logical in what we can attempt to do. So the process of being honest with oneself (critical) is the first thing to wrap your head around. Unless we are honest with ourselves and avoid the mistakes that pride or prejudice bring to the table, one will place efforts in the wrong area. You can believe in the government or your fellow man but under the scenarios you envision and the examples we have witnessed being extrapolated into a larger crisis ( like a war, depression...) will you still have that same confidence and if not, what can you try and do about it

Example: We look at a family living along a river in the city and everyone knows they are in a flood plain and the same for their bug out cottage in the wilds/ it is also along a river and in a flood plain. You inherited it or thought it was great being near a river or lake....

Without going into all the other issues that would be reviewed in a TRA, let’s only choose the current focus on floods and list a few issues.

City and country threats in each location.

• Loss of home/ shelter
• Sickness due to mold
• Death from electrocution,
• Drowning or injury
• Sickness from bacteria in drinking water
• Destruction of food and other essential supplies
• Waste water.
• Heating
• Drinking water

Now here’s the fun part or where the magic really starts to get interesting and that is in the risks of it occurring and its impact on you. One must examine the impact on their location/ who is around, available resources, speed of help etc. If the risk is high then you must plan for it and depending on your location, your response / plans and needed resources will be different. As one can imagine, a city issue in an isolated disaster/local flood with all the help available in a city will be different then one in the boonies and the below notes on the risks show this

Threats: City Risk
• Loss of home/ shelter: High, but minor impact as hotels or ability to purchase of new home
• Sickness due to mold: High, but again near zero impact due to options
• Death from electrocution: Low due to ability to leave home
• Drowning or injury: low risk for above reasons
• Sickness from bacteria in drinking water: Low risk as drinking water is treated
• Destruction of food: High likelihood, but low risk/easy to restock
• Waste water: Low risk due to drainage and porta Potty s supplied by city
• Heating; High risk but low impact due to ability to leave
• Drinking water: Low risk due to piped city water& resources

Threats: Country Risk
• Loss of home/ shelter: High or Severe impact to life due to limited housing/ shelter options
• Sickness due to mold: High risk if due to reduced options, one is forced to stay in damaged building
• Death from electrocution: High risk as one will likely stay in house and work with generators and wiring
• Drowning or injury: High risk, limited assistance will result in fatigue and lead to mistakes
• Sickness from bacteria in drinking water: High risk due to risk of septic bed leaching into well
• Destruction of food … High risk and high impact on one’s survival
• Waste water: High/ flooded septic bed, long recovery time
• Heating: High/ destruction of heating material &long term survival
• Drinking water: High risk due to contaminated well or river drawn water

So the above may have a well prepared person in the city focusing on having money to be able to stay at a hotel or be able to buy another home while insurance claims are addressed. A country prepper will need to seriously look at all the physical and immediate challenges they will face. A tiny and quick to access emergency camp on high and dry ground will help…. but they still need to think about insurance and rebuild time!

The exercise must be done so you are as sure of your plan as possible. Identify all the threats to you and the risks of it occurring and identify the resources available and needed to remedy.

Examples: We see cottagers losing their source of heat when propane tanks began floating! In their mind, they likely said Ha! I have source of heat and cooking and I don’t care if power goes out for a few days. Well the “risk” of a flood would tell a thorough person, they are not as well prepared as they believe. Even if the house is ok, thier source of heat and cooking starts floating around. Could the tank be raised on a concrete base? Same for the well or river water they rely upon. Nice and available clean water but suddenly it isn’t and it can be polluted for months or longer from the farm or industry up river. So while one laughs at the need for water treatment capabilities, it suddenly rises to the very top of concerns. One can raise the cottage above flood plain, secure food and heat but forget the risk that a flood poses to their drinking water. Being honest, one may say, look at all this clean water, why invest hundreds or thousands in water treatment. I have other things to spend my limited resources on. Simple and understandable opinion but one must take the time to give each threat and all the sources of risk associated with the threat and the attention it deserves.

We see well set up locations up north but then realize they are at Risk due to fires. How much can one do against a large fire? What is their option? A second bug out location…? One may have the best setup in the world with animals, gardens, water…. But the almost guaranteed risk of a fire every decade looms VERY large in their TRA.

Another example: A person is in western or northern Canada and be vulnerable to fires in large areas. You have all your stuff and systems but unlike a person close to a city further south or in Ontario or Quebec.., an alternate safe location may be hundreds of mile if not further, away. A person in Ontario can live in the city burbs and still have (funds being available) one or two bug out locations within 100 miles of main home. A person in Alberta may need to travel a day to find a safer location. So for a person in high fire zone, secondary location will be a bigger issue then someone in the south or eastern Canada

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Re: Threat Risk Assesments (TRA's)

Post by LAZ 1 » Sat May 04, 2019 12:23 am

a good start on reminding people of some threats we tend to underestimate ...
unless we have had personal experience.

FIRE is a major threat for many "wilderness" prepper retreats, but even city dwellers need to assess this threat as well. A burglar may take some of your possessions, but a fire can take it ALL!

My family was involved in a residential fire in a small rural town. By the time the fire dept got there, nothing was left of the building but the concrete foundations. The only possession saved were some stuff right by the door ...
eg: my gun cabinet with guns in it, a trunk with family heirlooms, and the automobile that was backed out of the garage just in time.

The good news was, this was a SMALL town, with a tight knit sense of community, and the neighbors came together to pitch in and help. Within a few days, we had a new place to stay, and almost everything in household goods and clothing that we needed to get by. None of it matched but it did the job until the fire insurance claim was settled.

Wilderness living has its perks, but rapid response to fires is not one of them. I lived in a quiet rural neighborhood with lots of trees around, mostly second growth. When a house across the street went up, we all rushed over to try and control the situation. Even with a dozen men and a Bob cat, and two garden hoses (from wells) the surrounding trees were starting to burn. The local firetrucks arrived about 30 minutes after the call out. Their big hoses brought the situation under control. BUT, if the fire trucks had not been there in time, several near by homes would have been toast.

YEP ...
FIRE is not always your friend!

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Re: Threat Risk Assesments (TRA's)

Post by Clarence » Sat May 04, 2019 3:26 pm

Thanks for feedback and glad things worked out. Having friendly helping hands can be real nice.

The other thing to look into is can one even get any type of fire, wind.. insurance on a remote homestead where fire response is hours at best away. Having all ones money and preparations wiped out and no way to pay for it to be replaced is one heck of gamble. One I personally would not take. While insurance is available, I will take that option, even if it means me being closer to my fellow man.

Using a TRA AND being honest, helps identify and leed the way to making corrections.

Having conducted them, having one published internationally and read or be impacted by them in designs, counter measures.... I can’t stress enough the being honest part. You can not blow things off because they run counter to your beliefs or bravado.... I have seen people do this and expose themselves to great risk. Money or the decision on where to spend a budget plays a big part in why we are so ill prepared in protection of infrastructure. The other component is the prejudice side, some refuse to accept the fact that some groups or humans in general wish us ill will. They ignore these risks because they simply do not wish to acknowledge them. For this group, I am not using this as a political statement but one where we must continually be honest with ourselves. I like electricity but you won’t catch me dead living below a dam. I see a family with a nice child but the parents look like they belong behind bars, I am not going to disregard the threat from the parents etc

So if one is starting out and looking for a nice location or is even building up their resources, I would say, try and make a list of things, look where you are or will be, wind directions, danger to water source from farms or industry... If remote, look at investing in a serious fire pump ( always test and make sure it works and of course this means in the winter!)and hose system. Peppercorn gave some great tips on fire blankets and self exploding chemical balls. Maybe bury a good supply of goods so if you do lose the homestead to massive forest fire and have no insurance, you have instant and guaranteed access to things you will need to survive a year or more.

I once posted a note on the importance of making sure all your preps are fully covered by home insurance. Blew me away when I was younger on how much I had accumulated but would not have been covered with home insurance. All that camping, hunting, fishing and outdoor gear ads up real fast and goes well beyond typical percentage covered under a home insurance. I doubt any preppier reading this, has enough insurance coverage to cover all their preps. A years supply of stuff and all the ancillary equipment is usually pretty expensive and takes us years to accumulate!

Don’t forget wind. If isolated and roof gets torn off, you will need tarps, plywood or other material to restore a roof until more permanent measures are in place.

Well gotta get outside and do chores while it’s not raining! Guessing gardens are going to struggle again this year. I am thinking of tossing in the towel and going with a greenhouse.


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