Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

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farmgal
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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by farmgal » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:48 pm

Peppercorn, I will totally agree with you on this one.. yes, many people are going to find themselves underwater.. The question for me is how many jingle keys will we see.. how many will lose their homes..

I am really hoping that many are able to keep their homes.. I am worried for many on what is coming in that regards.. far to many are living very close to the edge.. yes I know lots made choices that put them there.. I get that

But others have worked hard and still on the edge and this is where my extra support will go ..


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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 am

A example of what could be coming here. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 763921.cms

On a positive note out here in the country I have the roads mostly all to myself when I go cycling. I must say I do like it. End of the month is coming up, this is where a lot of people could start falling behind on bills. It may not be too bad this end of month but I suspect its going to get real ugly by the end of April if real monetary help is not provided.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.

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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by Clarence » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:42 am

Yes indeed, homes will be in danger and for honest hard working people not going for mega home, they will need help.
I really can’t see pogey coming anywhere near making ends meet for mid income family of four. There needs to be a full suspension on mortgage payments, same for credit card debts.
Given what I see, I would not be surprised if we see 40-50% unemployment ( includes welfare and others who are capable of working but have dropped off both stats) by end of April.
It’s impossible for companies to keep paying people to stay home, be unable to sell much of anything... government workers will likely be semi safe for a number of months but even that bastion of “guaranteed” income may either lose it or be put on some reduced pay.

Governments are already massively in debt and are simply printing money. Will inflation for staple go up? Agree with those who believe we will see serious financial hit and it’s like nothing even this old fart has seen. It’s way beyond governments past counter measures, way beyond happy talk. You see the markets disregard interest cuts and other games. They know it’s a disaster, but you see tiny rallies as people pump it up and then try and make some money before it slides back down again. A little gradual pump and dump scenario seems to be occurring or a gradual but still rapid sell off.

You’ll note that the word “months” is popping up a bit more! I think people will wise up to the two week fairy tale by end of this week.

The other thing that is getting a tiny bit of press is that this China virus may, like Spanish flu hit us in three waves, with second and third wave being worse then first. Try and imagine that one!

By the end of this week, I believe we will see a very serious change in people’s fear factor and the financial markets continue to plunge. Just a guess but emergency measures act may hit not this week but week after

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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:47 am

peppercorn wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:16 am
The price of oil is still falling, I have been expecting a dead cat bounce but not yet.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/com ... 1029010123
The day after I posted that, it bounced back by 25 %, I was looking for a 20% bounce, 25 is even better. I will stick my neck out and say the free fall is over. Look for trading in the 20 to 26 dollar range. It can trend out of that range but based on my experience I think even in these uncertain times this price range will have some support. I think the dive is over. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts Of course the damage from the dive is still radiating outward. Also consider this, the U.S dollar is absolutely a petro dollar, The dollars backing has just fallen of a cliff, I, you and no one outside the halls of the owners of the U.S.A. know what is going on behind the scenes to give support to the price of oil, but I bet the phone lines to Riyadh are burning up with reminders that the Saudi rulers are only in power because of the U.S military!

I cant remember the year exactly, I think it was 85 and I was working at a gas plant at the time. The price of oil was falling and I remember that effected housing prices, Guys from the plant were calling appraisers to get a evaluation done on their homes as some were considering walking away from them at the time. Of course back then interest rates were something like 18% so it was smart to hand the keys back and walk away.
I have seen some of this before, but sure as hell not this fast!

Was out for another long ride on my bike (35km) this evening, no traffic at all, wonderfully quiet, a clear night where I could see all the stars and I suspect not a plane in the sky. Enjoy this pandemic were you can, you may not get another.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.

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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:57 am

Its Wednesday evening, I am looking at the numbers and as you can see the U.S. is at 68 000 cases ( more but that's what they admit to) and is in third place. If I have crunched the numbers right, over night they should be in second place, then by this time Thursday they will have more (admitted) cases than anywhere else. By Friday they will be well over 100 000 cases Looking at the time lag between cases and the deaths that follow. By this time next week, admittedly I am only guessing, but I would think 4000-5000 dead and climbing.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:06 am

U.S.A. Number one! Not a title I would want to hold, and with all the snow birds coming back I just cant image how many cases of the virus must be coming with them. I went through the list of countries comparing cases to deaths. Italy has the worst ratio of all, 80 000 cases and 8000 dead. That's a fatality rate of 10%. More typical is 3%, some less.
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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by Clarence » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:29 am

Agree, snowbirds have likely brought in a gear many. Border towns south of ottawa are ticked because the were shopping in Brockville and prescott when they drove over the border!

As spring heats up, I fear that the poorer cities will be hit and their hospitals are not as well equipped. So philly, Baltimore, LA, Seattle, Chicago..... should be real fun. The racial hype will be played up to the max.

Nurses are not getting the masks... they need here in ottawa area and it’s a crying shame.

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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:26 am

Here is a map showing current distribution of cases in Alberta. https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/?fbclid ... h4UzQDiWwQ
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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by farmgal » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:27 pm

Things have been busy, the farming area and those around me are all bracing and planning the coming work/farm/garden season's.. local orchards are reaching out for help, having lost their "youth" programs, their woofer programs, reaching into the community to connect with families and helpers to get in and prune, to come do different things at a proper social distance apart for a share in the harvest.. (I am looking forward to the amazing flavour of my fall pigs and lambs having a crazy amount of squash and apples to help finish them) Seed growers are looking to make connections to help get things planted and for work party's in the fall to help harvest the seed and haul away hundreds of pounds of squash that can then be used in the community and as livestock feed and or to build compost.

The last days have seemed endless as people are working the "network" Who has chicks, are you setting eggs in the incubator? Who has litters of piglets coming, when due, when ready.. I need to learn how to garden, I will trade hard strong backed labour if I can learn from you and ask questions for the four to five hours that I am shoveling, moving, hauling and turning..

Who is splitting their wood, "what the cost per cord whole logs or split is for local/regular" vs this is what you tell people if they asked what you paid.. You want extra wood, extra cords this year I will it away for you..

Do you want? I have.. You have? Do you have? Are you going to grow? Got Eggs? Can you help me plan my garden? You got extra compost, I have this.. What do I have that you would want?

Lets do a bulk order of this and then split it between all six of us..

Its been awesome.. its been busy!
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Re: Are you prepping for the coronavirus?

Post by peppercorn » Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:25 pm

I have been reading up on how different countries have responded, quite the range of actions taken. You can imagine my surprise when last night I was reading up on the U.S. response and found that 20 some states were operating much as if it was BAU. Flordia of all places...no lock down on businesses at all, everyone still going bowling, going to the bars and such. I cant believe it, that state must have one of the largest groups at risk! I suspected it was going to be really bad in the U.S. for a number of reasons but I am thinking when this is done and we look back the U.S. is going to be one of the worst hit countries of any.
Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.

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