The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

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Clarence
Canada
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Clarence »

Protector wrote:I've done that but how does one drink frozen water in a plastic bottle? With metal at least you can heat it with a survival stove from dollorama
When I am driving, the water bottles I have up front start melting after twenty minutes and I sip as I travel. In an emergency, I would have no prob heating from stuff I have in vehicle or if I pitched a tent. At least I have water with me in the vehicle, so problem one is solved, and thawing it isn’t an issue. Also, Lots of time the bottle is half frozen, so again no issue.


Clarence
Canada
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Location: Eastern Ontario

Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Clarence »

Wayne wrote:Before I retired from the police department, I worked organized crime, narcotics, tactical, general patrol and traffic in the GTA. I even did a nine month stint as a member of an outlaw motorcycle gang. I'm well aware of the criminal element in a major city, from a police perspective and as a criminal beaten by the police. I've been in jail and have mingled with the dark side of Society. For a time, I lived as one of them.

That said, there's no 'boogie man' waiting to run amok when the lights go out. Yes, there's a criminal element. Surprisingly, they too have sons and daughters whom they care about. A power outage will make their criminal actions easier and the police's job more difficult. During an outage people will act differently and yes, the risks to the general public will increase.

To answer your question Clarence, I wouldn't worry about my daughter (if I had one; I had three sons) during a two-day power outage. Like my sons, she would be skilled enough to kick the crap out of most 200 pound men and survive for weeks in the forest with only a knife. :-)

When a power outage took out NY City for 24 hours a few years back, there was looting, traffic was a disaster, but statistically it wasn't much to speak of. People got murdered, robbed and beaten. Just another day in Gotham. MVA's were up, but at the same time there were incredible feats of self-sacrifice. There were positives and there were negatives. People helped each other.

A power outage doesn't necessarily mean Armageddon or a Zombie apocalypse. It could just mean a few days without power. My money is on people helping one another for the first two-days. Although many don't trust government. I do trust those in our emergency services and our military to make a valiant effort to look after those in need. It will take over two days to overwhelm them. In the first two-days, you're largely dealing with inconvenience; this in-itself isn't life threatening.
Scope is king here. A few days is one thing, four days and longer, affecting millions, is another.

Closest I personally ever came in canada to seeing chaos or a disaster was ice storm of 98. No power at my place for 13 days and some neighbors were down 30. Ottawa, montreal were hardly touched. It was all the surrounding areas. Rural folks toughed it out, it was relatively mild so that helped. 24 hours won’t be a big issue because people will think the power will be on shortly and there will be food in even the most I’ll prepared persons pantry, but end of day two... and NO phone, pitch black, no sounds, no internet and only a few police! I respect your experience with criminals and I too see love of family amongst other elements in the news since 911, but they are still criminals...and they will have an edge over average civilian.

Police and military will be beyond over whelmed in a large crisis. They will be focused on protection of government buildings, utilities, hospitals, trying to manage jammed highways so emergency vehicles can get through , fuel for emergency op centres, piddly water and food distribution. Nice folks, I know many. Retired police, military and other disciplined people will surface and that will help, but a total power grid failure affecting 7 million or more people will not be friendly.

Look at Fort mcmurray fire. I watched as rcmp and emergency services had highway leading into town open and egress was jammed! They couldn’t even manage to do what the us does and open up a lane or two on other side to speed up egress! Considering it went on for weeks and it wasn’t a flash event, I found the response poor and validation of what I know of our readiness. This is not a reflection on individuals efforts, but on poor preparations or ability to respond. I didn’t see any military police, fuel tankers topping up stranded cars ( slowing traffic flow), soldiers directing traffic, no military bulldozers, so poor messaging from gov etc. Nope, basically police doing their best, but obviously lacking initiative, ability or authority to open up some inbound lane/s. Based on experience, guessing all three played a roll. Were there mass casualties, no,but by the grace of God and wind direction!

This spring we had some good flooding around ottawa and army was hardly present. Looks like they focused the little they had in montreal area. There should have been hundred but nada, nothing. Again, not knocking folks but we do not have anywhere near what is needed for a five... day total hydro failure in Large urban areas. Response will be equivalent of a wet bandaid purchased at dollar store being applied on an IED blast victim Scope of disaster being discussed will overwhelm our resources. Nice parts of suburbia and rural areas will be relatively ok, but cities and all the highways where people will be stuck in their cars or wandering around looking for help and medical attention, Nope.

During the peaceful ice storm event, the military were asking members to use their personal credit cards to purchase supplies at CANADIAN tire so they could power up emergency centres. Two young, overweight soldiers came huffing and puffing down my lane way on day fourteen to see if we were ok. And I am not exactly in an isolated area, farms and homes all around me. So zero outreach or presence of any military personnel in my immediate area. Citizens were clearing fallen trees from roads and trust me, there were a lot. No military vehicles and soldiers, just civilians. I can manage that, but 70 year olds or the sick on tenth floor of an apartment, or the people caught in office towers, hotels, shopping centres, buses, metros, airports with thousands on planes and many more thousands in the terminal unable to leave, ( boy those washrooms are sure going to test peoples friendliness) trains etc during dead of winter and a nice six inch snowstorm! Murphy’s law! How many people are traveling by car etc at 5pm, 500 thousand, a million? That’s a lot of people scared, cold and in the dark, watching their fuel gauge go down on an overpass 40 feet in the air or on an eight lane highway. Sucks to be them. But no problem, the police and military will get the traffic all moving by noon the next day. Yes sir, gov has it all figured out. Magical helipcoptrs picking up half a million folks off the roads. Cars, sure are not moving anywhere for weeks.

Speaking of actual gov readiness. I was in a city in the US with folks and while we were discussing a certain type of event. Word was do not count on fed cavalry coming to save your derrière. get organized locally and look at organizing civilian road blockades and restricting access into your town to locals only, or if on a pass through highway, make sure they stay on highway, pass through and not wander into town. Now, that was an open, honest debate/ discussion amongst tier one security folks who know status, are in charge of companies, agencies / departments. No PC, Baloney, just facts as everyone in the room knew to be accurate. People were told to look at hockey arenas to place corpses on or get your hands on cooler trailers. Mention this to folks here and they look at you like your nuts. That will never happen! Pray it won’t because we sure are not anywhere near ready. Yanks are light years ahead of us and they would be in a world of hurt. Just for the fun of it, Ask your local town council what they have planned for 200 or even 20 corpses within a week if provinces says they can’t handle them. Do they have body bags, or will it be a blanket on the local rink. Damn, need power to keep that ice frozen, just turned into a puddle! Frig, there goes that plan!

Ask your hospital, school emergency centre and town hall how long their fuel will last. If on natural gas, will the entire line or process function without power? Do they have a few dozen sat phones? If not, I hope they have a lot of cans and string! Radios like cell phones need power on the towers and need to be charged. voip has greatly replaced analogue so not sure how well that will work for comms when internet goes down. Does your local police have sat phones? Dedicated diesel generators and fuel to run stations, Fire department? What about all the switching gear needing power for train signals, track switching gear, train stations, water filtration plants, lights in tunnels, traffic lights, fuel pumps at city bus depots, gas station to fuel police, medical vehicles, etc

Lights out means an almost total shutdown of everything today. If not right away, within 12 to max 24 hours. Once things go down, it can takes days to weeks to get back up

All our highways and city streets would be parking lots within hours to a day and that includes emergency lanes. So not sure how fuel will be delivered to city core and all the outlying emergency centres and hospitals! If Toronto is shut off from fuel delivery from let’s say montreal or Sudbury due to all the highways being jammed how will fuel trucks get in, let alone move around from one location to the next? Oh, same applies to food coming into all 7 million folks in GTA

Part of what I do professionally is find holes or lies. I have to say, I sadly never have a shortage and they are not little ones either. I usually get the , oh frick look! There’s an excellent book I read on national vulnerabilities and I will try and find it and pass along. Realistic read and naturally all open source.

All of the above is open source info and a small snippet of all the things that will go wrong and frig with peoples little paper manuals they have proudly sitting on shelves. On that topic, ask your city how they will access plans, contact numbers for all the gover agencies that won’t be answering the phone or emails when their computers shut dow! Remember, even if buddy has power, the server one hundred clicks away or anyone of a thounasnd parts fails, he is looking at a blank screen! Systems crash for hours on a good day!
Protector
Canada
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Protector »

Some part of us recognizes a large scale SHTF or TEOTWAWKI is possible or we wouldn't be part of this forum. That being said; The videos push the limits on what a bad breakdown could look like. It's going to depend on the level and scale of disaster. If it's one area I doubt you would see much more than looting and Ppl dying from the elements and uneducated like blocked tail pipes and BBQS in the house. Even in Katrina their were very few physical crimes. If an economic breakdown like Venezuela or Argentina occurs expect martial law and the government and Ppl alike doing anything they can to survive. Muggings and the like become common place and nowhere is safe but maybe the far off country side and only for a time.
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Wayne
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Wayne »

Clarence, your comments are spot on. The situation could certainly get worse as time ticks by. In the short-term however it would only be an inconvenience. As both you and Protector have mentioned, scope is everything. A national / Provincial power outage is different than your power is out but two streets over is fine. My comments were directed at the video, what was depicted in the first two-days; which wasn't accurate imo. Good discussion.
None you improvise, one (or more) is luxury.
Protector
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Protector »

Now what to do about it as responsible heads of households? Preparing for the mundane within our budgets and their by begin to prepare us for the insane. I sickness, job loss, natural disasters/ death to be my main areas of preparedness. Pandemics, economic breakdowns followed by terrorist actions and government actions being the least likely. My solution is to be able to live without inputs for a time and resupply by savings/ trade when supplies run low. We use the rule of three and more when the situation needs it. Water for a month for everyone you would let into your house. Water filter/ rain catchment and close water source. Wood stove/ butane and BBQ as backups (mum/ family/ MAG) food for 3months to one year and resupply from garden/ perennial plants/ trees and bushes/ wild edibles/ game. First aid for normal situations building up to insert doctor and it's dealt with. Gas to get home in cache and for a month if gas prices skyrocket or job disappears. Emergency kits (day packs) that can get you through an emergency for every family member combined with micro emergency kits that will allow you to find resupply and are backups to the emergency kits. The third arm is the BOB. Followed by car/ home and caches. Insurance for everyone's life/ 30 sicknesses and mutilation with insurance for house/ BOL and everyone in your care. This is how we prepare in addition. To minimizing costs and living without outside inputs as much as possible. No dryer/ wood heat/ two vehicles/ varying education and job experiences/ eyes and ears open to trade and mutual aid opportunities. Family comes first. Feel free to educate me where I'm going wrong or extra things I could do. I love hearing what other preppers are doing so I can improve. Self evalution is very important
Clarence
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Clarence »

Protector. Add alcohol to list of barter items. Sad to say but a guy may trade his chainsaw or side of beef for a 26 oz!

As most have stated, food at a minimum of three months, ideally six as a minimum. One fine day or another, it will be self sufficiency that will prevail. What we are doing with our supplies is buying time. Could be for a one week event, a month or good forbidding, longer.

As men we talk about guns, knives, bags, tech, and food. Seeds for food and herbal remedies need a lot of attention. My family uses a lot of herbal ointments, oils and liquids for common colds, burns, contusions etc. Arnica is beyond fantastic for bruises, sore muscles, bee stings. Combudoron is fantastic for burns and of course echinacea for prevention of colds. Infludo is fantastic for prevention of flu type bacteria. At slightest hint of chest cold.. we start taking infludo and echinacea and nine times out of ten, we can nip it in the bud. As a bad asthmatic, I need to keep the chest clear or I am screwed. Best product we have found is from Weleda. I will try and post some of this stuff in medicine or health section later this week..

I think this forum is fantastic for ideas and encouragement. It’s not easy for many. Many are in the city and the costs of two homes isn’t cheap, then the issue of even getting to your hot site could be fun. There is also the psychological hit to people when considering leaving family behind or paying for their supplies, considering self defence is not natural for most, people are nice and the world can be a cruel place, requiring split second life and death decisions.

As many have said, it’s all about the scope of the event. From, look how good we did during that two week event, I told you we would be fine, too, good lord now what!

Have a good one and enjoy the mental and physical exercise. Keeps one alert now and could be a life saver in the future.
Protector
Canada
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Protector »

Looking forward to ur post on medicinal oils. Echinacea is my go to for cold symptoms too. Wondering what dose u take. Don't forget to put ur sources for your ingredients/ books. I'm weak in the emergency fund area for sure. My buddy in another forum said to be even. Not having to much of one and not another
Clarence
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Clarence »

Protector, I will take some pics and post this week.
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Wayne
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by Wayne »

I was frightened. There were five attackers. I shot the first two, but was wounded in the shoulder. This guy jumped me from behind; he had a knife. I was able to wrestle the knife away from him and use it against him; there were two left. I looked up to see a guy standing over me with a shotgun...

What did you do?


I died...

Pardon the fantasy, but I think it advantageous to think of this scenario. Especially if you decide to take on a group of people, in defence of your property.

I started to take the martial arts when I was 16 and was a relative fanatic until I was in my thirties. My first real world application came as a result of an on-duty altercation with a man with a knife. He was smaller than me and I succeeded in disarming him. Unfortunately, not until he was able to slash me in the leg. Fortunately for me, no major bleeding was involved. I've experienced bruising and dislocations in the past in full-contact tournaments, but here was a relatively small, untrained individual and I was lucky it turned-out so well. It really gave me pause and shook my confidence.

The moral of the story is that if you go head-to-head, you will likely take damage or worse. How is a firefight ever justified in the presence of your loved ones? For me it's not, unless there is absolutely no choice.

Preparations for defence are a two-edged sword. I have already written in previous postings that if someone wishes to use violence to take my home and possessions, they're happy to have them. I will return (without my family) and deal with the problem at long range. My family's safety is assured. I agree with Protector that Family is most important.

Any preparations taken regarding 'a last stand,' will aid the perps, if you don't succeed in a defence (security systems, fortress like preparations). From a tactical perspective, I don't want to deal with these when I take the offensive; where I have the advantage (my aggression, my time, my turf).

My advise is:

1. Maintain a low profile;
2. Do not fortify unless you really believe in a zombie apocalypse (I don't);
3. Hide extra resources well (the poor do not fear robbery);
4. Remember it's easier to attack than defend;
5. Secure a hidden off-site location to store offensive equipment.
None you improvise, one (or more) is luxury.
thecrownsown
Topic Leader
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Re: The most realistic blackout breakdown ive ever seen!

Post by thecrownsown »

So in the blackout of '03, which lasted for days (a week or so?) in many parts of Ontario...there was no anarchy or loss of rule of law.

My brother lives in Toronto..and by day 3...it was a party on some of the major streets in retail areas as restaurants were just trying to get rid of stuff. It was boring for the most part, lots of talk and rumours like any group of people...but overall nothing of consequence.

The most recent articles I've read in Discover and Psychology Today talk more about people bonding together both in immediate disasters (terrorism, shooting events, etc.) as well as these longer more drawn out, less spectacular power outages/ice storms. This doesn't last indefinitely...no one is saying society won't eventually break down. In emergency scenarios like a shooting or terrorist attack...people bonding together actually flies in the face of previously accepted doctrine. But as more disasters occur...more information is compiled which we all can learn from. And nothing is absolute...there are so many variables at play there is no one size fits all to every situation. We're human...we're not as predictable as we sometimes like to believe.

As for a collapse of rule of law...in Ontario at least...I wouldn't go reaching for my gun and putting up the barbed wire right after a blackout...the first days..if not week or two would be relatively benign.

As for Protector...I've known him for a while now. Without saying to much about the man's identity or preps...he is about as legit as preppers come...I am envious of what he's accomplished and what his plans are for the future. if I could only get to see him more often... and get rid of this damn box of Baeofung radios he bought and has sitting in my basement! :D
https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738
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